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Gambler's Fallacy / The Monte Carlo Fallacy / The Doctrine The Maturity of Chances / Hot Hand Fallacy


 
 

Gambler's Fallacy / The Monte Carlo Fallacy / The Doctrine The Maturity of Chances / Hot Hand Fallacy

The gambler's fallacy is one of the many smokescreens that are used to cover the fact that the reasoning is based on one of the three fallacies of Agrippa's trilemma. Whenever a logical fallacy is committed, the fallacy has its roots in Agrippa's trilemma. All human thought (without Divine revelation) is based on one of three unhappy possibilities. These three possibilities are infinite regress, circular reasoning, or axiomatic thinking. This problem is known as Agrippa's trilemma. Some have claimed that only logic and math can be known without Divine revelation; however, that is not true. There is no reason to trust either logic or math without Divine revelation. Science is also limited to the pragmatic because of the weakness on human reasoning, which is known as Agrippa's trilemma.

Gambler's Fallacy / The Monte Carlo Fallacy / The Doctrine The Maturity of Chances / Hot Hand Fallacy occurs when the odds of a truly random event happening are thought to increase or decrease over time and events.

Examples of the Gambler's Fallacy / The Monte Carlo Fallacy / The Doctrine The Maturity of Chances / Hot Hand Fallacy

George Wald writing on The Origin of Life in Scientific American August, 1954, p. 48: “Time is in fact the hero of the plot. The time with which we have to deal is of the order of two billion years. What we regard as impossible on the basis of human experience is meaningless there. Given so much time, the ‘impossible’ becomes possible, the possible probable, and the probable virtually certain. One has only to wait; time itself performs the miracles."

It is interesting to note that the Atheist website, talkorigins.org labels the use of this quote, or any other quote not favorable to Atheist dogma, to be quote mining. Apparently talkorigin's staff writers don't know what quote mining is. Quoting someone is not quote mining. Quote mining is quoting out of context to create a false impression. However, this is exactly the argument of George Wald. It really doesn't matter, though. It appears here to give a classic example of the gambler's fallacy.



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Last updated: Sep, 2014
 
 

Gambler's Fallacy / The Monte Carlo Fallacy / The Doctrine The Maturity of Chances / Hot Hand Fallacy



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There are 31 sub-topics of "Statistical Fallacies"

Logical Fallacy of Misused Statistics

Misunderstanding the Nature of Statistics / Innumeracy

Clustering Illusion

Logical Fallacy of Bad Statistical Data

Logical Fallacy of Biased Statistical Method

Logical Fallacy of Biased Statistical Calculation

Logical Fallacy of Biased Conclusion from Statistics

Logical Fallacy of Biased Reporting of Statistics

Logical Fallacy of Biased Statistics / Biased Statistics / Loaded Sample / Prejudiced Statistics / Prejudiced sample / Loaded Statistics / Biased Induction / Biased Generalization / Unrepresentative Sample / Unrepresentative Generalization

Logical Fallacy of Generalizing from a Hypostatization

Logical Fallacy of Error in Sampling

Logical Fallacy of Avoiding Specific Numbers

Logical Fallacy of Fake Precision / Over Precision / False Precision / Misplaced Precision / Spurious Accuracy

Logical Fallacy of Self-Selected Biased Sample

Logical Fallacy of Comparing Two Things Statistically that are not Technically Comparable / Statistical Apples and Oranges

Logical Fallacy of Ludus / Ludic Fallacy

Logical Fallacy of Fishing for Data / Data Dredging / Data Fishing / Data Snooping / Equation Fitting

Logical Fallacy of Base Rate Neglect / Base Rate Fallacy / Neglecting Base Rates / Base Rate Bias / Prosecutor's Fallacy

Logical Fallacy of Isolated Examples

Logical Fallacy of Hasty Generalization / False Generalization / Glittering Generalities

Logical Fallacy of Argument from Small Numbers / Small Sample Size Bias

General Rule Fallacy

Logical Fallacy of Specificity

Logical Fallacy of Overwhelming Exception

Logical Fallacy of Stereotyping

Logical Fallacy of Dicto Simpliciter / Sweeping Generalization

Gambler's Fallacy / The Monte Carlo Fallacy / The Doctrine The Maturity of Chances / Hot Hand Fallacy

Logical Fallacy of Appeal to Possibility / Appeal to Probability

Logical Fallacy of Appeal to Infinite Possibilities

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

Misuse of Averages Fallacy

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