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More About Statistics

 

The following is a quote from Ian Juby.  Ian has a free crash course in creation. 

110 Kings Rd.
Chalk River, ON, Canada
877-532-9160
http://ianjuby.org

It was my good friend, Stan Lutz, who pointed this out to me.

Amino acids are the basic building blocks of life.  Think of them as Lego; there are roughly twenty different kinds to choose from, and they join together to form structures called proteins.  These proteins can also join together and these form the essential parts of cells.

One simple protein might be an assembly of 200 amino acids.  So, using fairly simple math, for each amino in the assembly, we have a 1/20 chance of randomly selecting the correct one.  Thus, in our protein, we have 20200 different assembly combinations - and essentially only one of those combinations is correct and will work!  

 Written out, that's:

1,000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000 different combinations!

 Taking 20,000,000,000 (20 billion) years, and multiplying it by 365 days per year, 24 hours per day, 60 minutes per hour and 60 seconds per minute, you get:

630,720,000,000,000,000 seconds in 20 Billion years!

As you can see, we only have a mere 630,720,000,000,000,000 seconds to try all 1,000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000 different combinations.

 Remember - evolution has no intelligence to call upon to select the correct combination the first time, so it's hit and miss.

 So let's divide our available time into the number of combinations available.  We would have to randomly try

15,854,895,991,882,293,252,156,265,854,896, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000
different combinations, every second, for twenty billion years, to produce one protein by unguided processes.

Do you have any idea how many proteins you ate for breakfast this morning?  Would you care to do the math for one of those proteins that are over 2,000 amino acids long?

Evolution requires an infinite amount of time, but an infinite creator God requires but the twinkling of an eye.  The complexity of life demands a creator.

Time kills:

But never mind that for a second - let's assume that somehow, by some miracle (yes, if you believe in evolution, you believe miracles - more on that later on in another lesson), we have enough amino acids, and somehow, by some miracle, they are joining together.  Let's say we're 10 billion years into the process, and we have 100 of the amino acids joined in the correct sequence, making half a protein.  What's going to happen to that half-a-protein while the other 100 aminos get their act together? I'll tell you - they'll disintegrate! They'll detach! from each other, and we will lose what we already had!

So we don't have enough time to make the proteins by unguided processes, and if we did have the time, it would destroy them just as fast as it made them!

No really, time kills:

 The other side of the "time" coin that the anti-creationists don't want you to know about is the deterioration of the genome.  Evolution thrives on mutations.  Mutations are errors in our genetic code - the code that is essentially the blueprint on how to build you, or a plant, or a fish, etc...

Tremendous advances have been made in the arena of genetics and the study of the genome, and the surprises have been numerous. 

  1. One surprise that has come to light in recent years is that mutations are usually near-neutral; that is, they usually have no effect, and so are sometimes missed by the DNA repair mechanisms in your body. 
  2. The second thing they've learned is that these "near-neutral" mutations now accumulate over time (because they're not detected and removed), and the accumulating errors add up to one BIG error, which is a very big problem.
  3. Third, negative mutations (that is, mutations that are definitely baaad for you) outnumber the "good" ones considerably.
  4. Fourth, the "beneficial" mutations (the ones that are supposedly "good" for you) are always deletions - in other words, the supposed "beneficial" mutations which you can read about in the scientific literature, are actually information in the genetic code that is LOST. (Read the latest science on the subject: Without Excuse by Werner Gitt, a description of the scientific Laws of Universal Information. See also: Information Theory Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4. Here is another interesting article.) More is constantly being learned about information and about the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Evolutionists tend to hide in the weeds of the unknown with an argument from ignorance: "If you can't prove, by empirical science, that evolution is impossible, then it happened." By empirical science alone, we can only prove probabilities. The probabilities show the Big-Bang-Billions-of-Years-No-Flood-Molecules-to-Man story to be a bazaar hypothesis, a story that is so improbable that it should not be considered. However, empirical science is not a tool that can prove anything to be true or false absolutely. For absolute proof, we have revelation. (See Basic and Concise Guide to Practical, Useful Logic and Reasoning). God says that He created everything. He is the One Who enforces the laws of nature. He is the One Who will judge all of us in the end. We know that because we know Him presonally through the indwelling Presence of Jesus Christ and the moment-by-moment instruction of the Holy Spirit.


Genetic mutations don't help evolution:

So to sum all these points together, we are losing valuable information in our genetic code over time.  We are also gaining errors over time, which really means we're losing information that way as well.  When enough of the blueprint contained in the genetic code is corrupted, your body no longer has good enough "plans" on how to build/maintain your body, and you die.  We are losing this information so fast that all life as we know it should have died off millions of years ago, if indeed we had been around that long.  This rapid loss of information has prompted one researcher to write an article entitled "Why have we not died 100 times over?" (Kondrashov, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 175:583: 1995) Evolution has a troubling information problem.

 There is a fantastic book available on this subject - a bit of a tough read, but Dr. Jonathan Sanford (co-inventor of the gene gun) has collected this challenge to deep time and evolution into book form.  "Gen etic entropy and the mystery of the genome" is a book I highly recommend, and it can be ordered through the Creation Research Society online bookstore.



Author/Compiler
Last updated: Mar, 2013
 
 




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