Clustering Illusion

The clustering illusion is one of the ways that reasoning can be based on one of the three fallacies of Agrippa's trilemma. Whenever a logical fallacy is committed, the fallacy has its roots in Agrippa's trilemma. All human thought (without Divine revelation) is based on one of three unhappy possibilities. These three possibilities are infinite regress, circular reasoning, or axiomatic thinking. This problem is known as Agrippa's trilemma. Some have claimed that only logic and math can be known without Divine revelation; however, that is not true. There is no reason to trust either logic or math without Divine revelation. Science is also limited to the pragmatic because of the weakness on human reasoning, which is known as Agrippa's trilemma.

The Clustering Illusion occurs when the clustering of events that naturally takes place in a random process are not really random events. This fallacy is a statistical fallacy and usually occurs when the sample size is too small or non-representative. One thing that should be noted is the fact that God controls what we call random processes. He uses these processes to bless those who are following Him or to test them and prepare them to rule in the Kingdom of God. (We know this by Divine revelation) That means that there are no truly random processes. However, what we call random processes are merely examples of how, in His faithfulness, God is consistent. We know of God's active role through revelation.

Examples of the Clustering Illusion

In a series of ten coin flips, there is a 50% chance of having four heads (or tails) in a row.

The Forever 27 Club: fans think it's strange that several rising music stars died at 27 years old.

Sometimes, Christians make the mistake of thinking that clustering illusions are signs from God that they should do one thing or another.

When God is going to reveal His will to you and you are open to His leading, He will make His will plain to you. God speaks through Scripture about how He reveals His will.